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A Look at the Arab World in 2009



In Palestine the year started with the continuation of the Israeli brutal war on Gaza which started on the 21st of December, 2008, and lasted until the 18th of January 2009 leading to thousands of death and wounded on the Palestinian side most of whom where women and children. Israel’s aim from the war to weaken Hamas and strengthen its army to make up for its losses during the war on Lebanon in 2006 and to employ the war in the local elections held in Israel. The aggression led to many criticisms, and was denounced and condemned on the regional as well as the international levels. As a result of the Israeli aggression on Gaza and the Israeli elections that led to the rise of the extremist right in government, each Palestinian side realized that it is incapable of confronting the challenges facing Palestinians and the Palestinian cause alone. Thus, in an attempt to unify the Palestinian front, a dialogue between factions started in Cairo last February with the objective of achieving reconciliation between Palestinian factions. In this dialogue, an agreement was reached to use dialogue as a means of solving differences instead of the use of violence. After a final reconciliation document was reached, Hamas refused to sign it making the rift continue between the two factions (Hamas and Fatah).
With the year coming to an end, many challenges still remain ahead and bringing an end to the Palestinian divisions and unifying their front remain the major challenge in order to start the peace talks and negotiations on the final status issues as one entity. Up till then, Israel will keep using the Palestinian divisions in its favor and continue with building the settlements on the Palestinian territories . There can be no talks about reconstruction and lifting the siege or a serious process to activate the peace process in the region without reaching an agreement that would put an end to the state of division and disunity and restore unity to the Palestinian people.

As for Iraq, in 2009 Iraq witnessed important political changes that began with the arrival of President Obama to office in February 2009. President Obama’s strategy in Iraq focused on the withdrawal of US troops outside the cities or decreasing the number of troops in Iraq gradually and handling the issue of security to national forces.
In January 2009, the governorate elections were held in Iraq. These elections are the second to be held since the US invasion of Iraq in 2003 while the first one was in 2005 where the legislative elections were held. The holding of elections represented a major improvement on the security level and a retreat in the activities of armed groups represented in the decline in civilian death tolls to the lowest levels. However, as of August sectarian violence returned stronger than before in the form of explosions and violent acts directed mainly against Shiaa groups. This is expected to lead to sectarian response against Sunnis. The sudden security deterioration raises many questions about the future of Iraq and its ability in achieving domestic stability.

In Yemen conflict erupted between the Yemeni forces and the Shiaa Houthi insurgent group. This conflict is not the first of its kind in Yemen. Since 2004, five military conflicts occurred between the government and the Houthi rebels making this one the sixth war. The eruption of the conflict for the sixth time indicates that military response taken against the Houthi group is not the right solution to solve the disagreement between both parties since that there are political demands for the Houthis. Also the Yemeni military forces lack necessary capabilities required in guerilla wars such as the ongoing one. In 2009 the major development to the conflict is that it spilled over into the neighboring border region of Saudi Arabia which makes it dangerous to regional stability. Yemeni government should consider a national dialogue to view the demands of the Houthi rebels in order to contain the situation.

Going to Syria, on the international level, the U.S- Syrian relations witnessed new developments after President Obama took office in 2009. A number of U.S officials visited Syria including George Mitchell the U.S envoy to the Middle East in order to improve relations with Syria through a dialogue between both parties. The last years proved to the U.S that Syria is inevitable in order to achieve peace and stability in the region. On the other hand, Syrian foreign policy has shown some positive gestures such as opening an embassy in Lebanon and participating at the Union for the Mediterranean. There are no doubts that a real improvement in the relations between the U.S and Syria cannot be achieved unless all regional issues are discussed. Yet the dialogue between both parties could be a move towards improving the relations between the two sides.
On the regional level, the King of Saudi Arabia visited Syria in the context of the Arab reconciliation which also reflects improvement in the Syrian relations with Arab countries.

Taking a look at Lebanon we find that Lebanon witnessed an optimistic year due to a relatively stable and peaceful environment in Lebanon whether on the domestic level or the regional one. Legislative elections were held in July 2009 where the March 14 alliance led by Movement of the Future won the majority of votes against March 8 alliance led by Hezbollah. The results were attributed to the lower number of votes for the Free Patriotic Movement - headed by Michel Oun- as a result of its alliance with Hezbollah, which made many of its former supporters vote for AL Kataeb – led by Walid Janbalat- and the Lebanese Forces – led by Samir Jaajaa- . As a result, Lebanon's president appointed parliamentary majority leader Saad Hariri as Prime Minister but due to the demands of the opposition, Saad Hariri apologized for forming a government in September. Finally, in November, after five months of cabinet negotiations, Hariri formed a national unity government. Fifteen ministers were selected by Hariri's March 14 Alliance, ten from the opposition March 8 Alliance, and five chosen by President Michel Suleiman.
On the regional level, the Lebanese-Syrian relations witnessed a major development through the visit of the Lebanese Prime Minister to Damascus in December 2009. The visit comes in the context of the Arab reconciliation. The visit was welcomed and was seen as a step in the right direction to get things back on track between the two countries and achieve national interests of both parties.

In the Horn of Africa, Somalia is suffering from a conflict which began in 1991 since the downfall of President Siad Barre regime. The conflict caused destabilization and instability all over the country. From 2006-2009, the National Defense Forces of Ethiopia were involved in the conflict. However, due to the resistance of the Islamic Courts and the declining international support the forces were not able to achieve its objectives. In 2009, in accordance with the Djibouti agreement reached in 2008 the Ethiopian forces withdrew from Somalia after leaving behind African Union troops (AUMIS) to help the coalition government. There were also proposed constitutional amendments that aimed to consolidate and develop the democratic pursuit, establish a bicameral system for the legislative power, transfer to the local rule of large authorities, expand the people's participation in decision-making and develop the electoral system. Somalia's government declared a state of emergency in June 2009, requesting immediate international support, and the military intervention of neighboring East African states. With the continuation of the conflict, the Somali government seems to be losing substantial control of the state to rebel forces. Many challenges remain in front of the new government. Suicide bomb attacks and piracy are of the major threats that need to be encountered.

While Mauritania witnessed a coup d’état in August 2008 organized by General Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz, former chief of staff of the Mauritanian army and head of the Presidential Guard. The president, prime minister and minister of internal affairs were arrested and the head of the Presidential Guards took over the president's palace. International and internal pressure eventually forced the release of Mauritanian President Sidi Mohamed Ould Cheikh Abdallahi After the coup. Ould Abd Al-Aziz's regime was isolated internationally and punished by diplomatic sanctions and the cancellation of some aid projects.
Abdellahi formally resigned which was a move that paved the way for the election of military strongman Muhammad Ould Abd Al-Aziz as civilian president, on July 18, by a 52% majority. Many of Abdellahi's former supporters criticized this as a political ploy and refused to recognize the results. Despite marginal complaints, the elections were almost unanimously accepted by Western, Arab and African countries, which lifted sanctions and resumed cooperation with Mauritania. By late summer, Abd Al-Aziz appeared to have secured his position and to have garnered widespread international and internal support.

Finally in Sudan, in March 2009, the ICC issued an arrest warrant for president Al-Bashir which makes him the first incumbent head of state charged with crimes in the Rome Statute. Bashir has rejected the charges. The African Union condemned the arrest warrant and decided to stop cooperation with the ICC in its summit in Libya (July 2009). Also the Arab League announced its solidarity with Al-Bashir. Only days after the ICC indictment, Darfur rebels who were in a peace process with the Sudanese government declared there is no need to engage in a peace agreement because the ICC recognized the Sudanese president as a criminal. Some analysts think that the ICC indictment is counterproductive and harms the peace process. Some believe that the arrest warrant against Al-Bashir will hinder the efforts to establish peace in Darfur, and will undermine any effort to boost stability in Sudan.
As for the South, Southern Sudan referendum law was passed by the national parliament in December. According to the peace agreement between the rebel group Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA) and the government of Sudan, Southern Sudan was granted autonomy for six years, to be followed by a referendum about independence in 2011. The law was criticized due to many things including the lack of a specific timeframe to agree on issues such as demarcation of borders, nationality, the Nile Waters Agreement and other issues. However, the bill was sent back to the parliament to remove the amendment following criticism from various parties.





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The principle of compassion lies at the heart of all religious, ethical and spiritual traditions, calling us always to treat all others as we wish to be treated ourselves. Compassion impels us to work tirelessly to alleviate the suffering of our fellow creatures, to dethrone ourselves from the centre of our world and put another there, and to honour the inviolable sanctity of every single human being, treating everybody, without exception, with absolute justice, equity and respect.

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